Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Download or read book Sonic the Hedgehog Annual 2019 written by Ian Flynn and published by IDW Publishing. This book was released on 2019-05-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Sonic’s world, adventure awaits around every corner, but even the world’s fastest hedgehog can’t be at the center of all of it! Join Sonic and some of his coolest friends in adventures that show just how wonderful Sonic’s world really is. In the lead story, the odd couple of Tangle the Lemur and Whisper the Wolf team-up to save a friend in need! Then Sonic and Tails take the Tornado for a spin, but is Sonic going too fast? Plus, Silver and Blaze slow down for a minute to go gardening, the Sonic Fan Club has their first official meeting, and Rouge the Bat hunts for treasure!

Download or read book Sonic Tangle Whisper 0 written by Ian Flynn and published by IDW Publishing. This book was released on 2019-04-24 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fan-favorites Tangle the Lemur and Whisper the Wolf take the spotlight in this special preview for their upcoming mini-series adventure! Check out a sneak peek of their next adventure as two of the newest and already most beloved Sonic characters team-up! Also includes a recap of Season 1!

Download or read book Find Your Hedgehog and Stop Working written by Socrate Exantus and published by . This book was released on 2018-11 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Find Your Hedgehog and Stop Working is not about relaxing on a beach or working a few hours a week. It's about finding what you love to do so that work no longer feels like work. By following these principles you will reinvigorate your passion, sharpen your skills, and explode your profits. What you'll discover inside:> The 8 Areas of Personal and Corporate Success> The 4 Pillars of Excellence> The Capstone of Effectiveness> The Benefit of Sacrifice> The Value of Legacy> And a whole lot more...

Download or read book Hedgie s Surprise written by Jan Brett and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2016-04-26 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jan Brett's beloved character Hedgie stars in this charming story about a little Tomten who gets tired of porridge for breakfast and starts stealing Henny's eggs. But Henny wants a brood of chicks and she needs her eggs. With the help of clever Hedgie, she substitutes an acorn, a strawberry, a mushroom and finally a potato in her nest. But nothing stops that Tomten until the little hedgehog hides in Henny's nest: when the Tomten reaches in to get his morning treat, all he gets is a handful of prickles. He runs home for porridge and never comes back again! Intricate needlepoint patterns of Scandinavian designs frame the characters reacting from the borders in this beautiful picture book set in Denmark.

Download or read book Happy Hedgehogs Stickers written by Teresa Goodridge and published by Courier Dover Publications. This book was released on 2015-10-21 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Twenty lovable little hedgehogs appear in sticker form to add a fanciful dash of color to any surface. They're depicted bearing flowers, carrying baskets, and in other charming poses.

Download or read book Hedgehog Art Through the Ages written by Steven Bach and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2016-11-11 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hedgehog Art Though the Ages is a humorous and lovely book. This amusing work of fictional art history features various inspiring works of art with hedgehogs as the key theme. The book includes over forty amazing, adorable, and delightful works from the Renaissance, Baroque, Neoclassical, Romantic and Modern periods, as well as sections on Americana and Japanese art. With lighthearted and amusing commentary on each art period along with descriptions and commentary on each artwork focusing on the history of hedgehogs in art, this book is sure to amuse and delight students of art history, fans of hedgehogs, and a general audience of all ages.

Download or read book On Grand Strategy written by John Lewis Gaddis and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2018-04-03 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “The best education in grand strategy available in a single volume . . . a book that should be read by every American leader or would-be leader.”—The Wall Street Journal A master class in strategic thinking, distilled from the legendary program the author has co-taught at Yale for decades John Lewis Gaddis, the distinguished historian of the Cold War, has for almost two decades co-taught grand strategy at Yale University with his colleagues Charles Hill and Paul Kennedy. Now, in On Grand Strategy, Gaddis reflects on what he has learned. In chapters extending from the ancient world through World War II, Gaddis assesses grand strategic theory and practice in Herodotus, Thucydides, Sun Tzu, Octavian/Augustus, St. Augustine, Machiavelli, Elizabeth I, Philip II, the American Founding Fathers, Clausewitz, Tolstoy, Lincoln, Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Isaiah Berlin. On Grand Strategy applies the sharp insights and wit readers have come to expect from Gaddis to times, places, and people he’s never written about before. For anyone interested in the art of leadership, On Grand Strategy is, in every way, a master class.

Download or read book Sonic Universe 92 written by Aleah Baker and published by Archie Comic Publications. This book was released on 2016-11-16 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ENTER the DEPTHS of DANGER in “The Case of the Pirate Princess” Part Two: The Chaotix have tracked down the princess of Meropis and the pirates that kidnapped her – but now they’re prisoners as well! And Vector’s daring plan to escape… is to join them?! It’s mysteries and revelations galore as the Chaotix hit the high seas! Featuring cover art by Sonic comics veteran Tracy Yardley

Download or read book Trends and Innovations in Urban E Planning written by Nunes Silva, Carlos and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2022-03-04 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The digital transformation of the 21st century has affected all facets of society and has been highly advantageous in many industries, including urban planning and regional development. The practices, strategies, and developments surrounding urban e-planning in particular have been constantly shifting and adapting to new innovations as they arrive. Trends and Innovations in Urban E-Planning provides an updated panorama of the main trends, challenges, and recent innovations in the field of e-planning through the critical perspectives of diverse experts. This book adds new and updated evidence on recent changes in this field and provides critical insights on these innovations. Covering topics such as citizen engagement, land property management, and spatial planning, this book is an essential resource for students and educators of higher education, researchers, urban planners, engineers, public officials, community groups, and academicians.

Download or read book 2019 Weekly Planner written by Creative art Creative art planners 2019 and published by . This book was released on 2018-10-04 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the special planner which contains an overview of the month, a notes section, The good spreads include space to write your daily schedule as well as a to-do list. You can see 7 days Mon-Sun in the couple page and also see the whole month too. - Perfect for any use. you can use for personal,work, to do list, small diary for note of the day and all purpose. - More than 20 designs in the series you can choose.See the series by click Creative art planners link above - Monthly Action plan - Best for Christmas gift and New Year gift. - Contains Jan 2019 - Dec 2019 - Light weight. Easy to carry around. Everyone need to have the best planner since the first of the year.Give it for yourself friends family and co-worker and Have a great year together.

Download or read book Sonic the Hedgehog Imposter Syndrome 1 written by Ian Flynn and published by IDW Publishing. This book was released on 2021-11-17 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ROAD TO #50 continues here! Enjoy a TEN-ISSUE long adventure leading up to the EPIC SHOWDOWN in milestone issue #50. A surge of imposters spells trouble for Sonic the Hedgehog, Miles “Tails” Prower, and even Dr. Eggman! Dr. Starline is pulling every tool from his kit as he creates his fastest and smartest inventions. An all new mini-series from Sonic writer Ian Flynn, Imposter Syndrome #1 will have readers seeing double!

Download or read book Moldilocks and the Three Scares written by Lynne Marie and published by Sterling Children's Books. This book was released on 2019-08-06 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Papa, Mama, and Baby Scare (a monster, mummy, and vampire) live together in a big haunted house. One night, as their alpha-bat soup cools down, they go out to walk their dog (a bloodhound, of course). While they're away, in walks the zombie Moldilocks, looking for food, a chair, and a bed that's just right. Kids will love this funny, surprising story!

Download or read book Hedgehogs Killing and Kindness written by Laura McLauchlan and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2024-05-14 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How our understanding of and relationship to hedgehogs reveals the complex interactions between culture, technology, bodies, conservation, and care for other animals. Across the globe, the bumbling hedgehog has been framed in a variety of ways throughout history—as a symbol of both good and bad luck, of transformation, of vengeance, and of wit and reincarnation. In recent years, it has also, in different parts of the world, been viewed as a pest for its predation on ground-nesting birds and has thus become a target for culling. In Hedgehogs, Killing, and Kindness, Laura McLauchlan explores how human actors have interacted with hedgehogs and other species through time and attends to the questions these interactions raise when it comes to ending and preserving life in the name of species conservation and wildlife rehabilitation. Grounded in rich empirical material and careful critique, Hedgehogs, Killing, and Kindness traces the author’s own more-than-human transformative experience and elucidates how care is shaped by and shapes various cultural and material forces. McLauchlan urges us to rethink and reflect on how cares are normalized, and at what and whose expense; what it might mean to care in more responsive ways; and finally, whether it is possible to kill with kindness in this rapidly changing and conflicting world. A valuable addition to the understanding and practices of multispecies ethnography, environmental anthropology, and the broader environmental humanities, this book sheds a necessary light on the fraught space between caring for and killing to care for other-than-human animals on our one precious planet.

Download or read book Harlequin Love Inspired December 2019 Box Set 1 of 2 written by Jo Ann Brown and published by Harlequin. This book was released on 2019-12-01 with total page 611 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Love Inspired brings you three new titles! Enjoy these uplifting contemporary romances of faith, forgiveness and hope. AN AMISH CHRISTMAS PROMISE Green Mountain Blessings by Jo Ann Brown Carolyn Wiebe will do anything to protect her late sister’s children from their abusive father—even give up her Amish roots and pretend to be Mennonite. But when she starts falling for Amish bachelor Michael Miller, can they conquer their pasts—and her secrets—by Christmas to build a forever family? THE RANCHER’S HOLIDAY HOPE Mercy Ranch by Brenda Minton Home to help with his sister’s wedding, Max St. James doesn’t plan to stay past the holidays. With wedding planner Sierra Lawson pulling at his heartstrings, though, he can’t help but wonder if the small town he grew up in is right where he belongs. HER COWBOY TILL CHRISMAS Wyoming Sweethearts by Jill Kemerer The last people Mason Fanning expects to find on his doorstep are his ex-girlfriend Brittany Green and the identical twin he never knew he had. Could this unexpected Christmas reunion bring the widower and his little boy the family they’ve been longing for?

Download or read book Hansons Marathon Method written by Humphrey Luke and published by VeloPress. This book was released on 2012-11-27 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Hansons Marathon Method, the coaches of the Hansons-Brooks Distance Project reveal the methods they've used to turn their runners into race winners, national champions, and Olympians. Hansons Marathon Method offers a radical overhaul of marathon training that promises to turn any runner into a true marathoner and help experienced marathoners set new personal bests. Hansons Marathon Method does away with mega-long runs and high-mileage weekends--two outdated traditions that make most runners miserable. Instead, runners using the Hansons method will gradually build up to the moderate-high mileage required for marathon success, spreading those miles more sensibly throughout the week. Running easy days mixed with precisely paced speed, strength, and tempo workouts, runners will steel their bodies and minds to run the hardest miles of the marathon. Both Beginner and Advanced training programs feature the unique Hansons 16-mile long run which, as part of the Hansons program, is ideal for preparing the body for the marathon. Humphrey explains how runners should set their goal race pace and shows how to customize the Hansons method to their own needs, like adding extra racing, running more miles, and handling training interruptions. Detailed nutrition and hydration chapters help runners pinpoint their personal energy and hydration needs so they know precisely how much to eat and drink during workouts, race week, race day, and for recovery. The Hansons approach to pacing and nutrition means marathoners will never hit the wall. Hansons Marathon Method lays out the smartest marathon training program available from one of the most accomplished running groups in the nation. Using this innovative approach, runners will mold real marathon muscles, train their body to never hit the wall, and prepare to run their fastest marathon.

Download or read book Sonic Mega Man Worlds Unite 1 written by Sonic/Mega Man Scribes and published by Archie Comic Publications (Trade). This book was released on 2016-07-19 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sequel to the record-shattering Sonic the Hedgehog and Mega Man crossover is here! You saw what happened when "Worlds Collide!" Now brace yourself for when WORLDS UNITE! Dark forces have come together in the far future! The vicious conqueror Sigma has cheated death again and escaped the justice of X and the Maverick Hunters. He's crossed space and time to join forces with Zavok and the malicious Deadly Six of Lost Hex! Sonic and Mega Man could save us--but they've gone missing! Now the Freedom Fighters of Sonic's world and the Robot Masters of Mega Man's world must take up the fight to save their heroes and stop the coming tide of darkness! WORLDS UNITE features guest appearances by the cast of SONIC BOOM, MEGA MAN X and some of CAPCOM and SEGA's biggest stars! This volume collects WORLDS UNITE parts 1-4, including SONIC UNIVERSE #76, SONIC BOOM #8, SONIC THE HEDGEHOG #273, MEGA MAN #50 (includes 10 extra pages of story!) and selections from the MEGA MAN: WORLDS UNITE BATTLES one-shot, and also includes bonus materials such as creator spotlights, production art, and 21 pages of cover images. From the Trade Paperback edition.