Download or read book 20 Chance of Rain written by Richard B. Jones and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-11-01 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are plenty of books on specialized risk topics but few that deal with the broad diversity and daily applicability of this subject. Risk applications require a robust knowledge of many attributes of this seemingly simple subject. This book teaches the reader through examples and case studies the fundamental (and subtle) aspects of risk - regardless of the specific situation. The text allows the reader to understand the concept of risk analysis while not getting too involved in the mathematics; in this method the reader can apply these techniques across a wide range of situations. The second edition includes new examples from NASA and several other industries as well as new case studies from legal databases. The many real-life discussion topics enable the reader to form an understanding of the concepts of risk and risk management and apply them to day-to-day issues.
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Download or read book 20 Chance of Rain written by Richard B. Jones and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-10-11 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are plenty of books on specialized risk topics but few that deal with the broad diversity and daily applicability of this subject. Risk applications require a robust knowledge of many attributes of this seemingly simple subject. This book teaches the reader through examples and case studies the fundamental (and subtle) aspects of risk - regardless of the specific situation. The text allows the reader to understand the concept of risk analysis while not getting too involved in the mathematics; in this method the reader can apply these techniques across a wide range of situations. The second edition includes new examples from NASA and several other industries as well as new case studies from legal databases. The many real-life discussion topics enable the reader to form an understanding of the concepts of risk and risk management and apply them to day-to-day issues.
Download or read book NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS TDL written by United States. National Weather Service and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Neuroeconomics Judgment and Decision Making written by Evan A. Wilhelms and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2014-07-11 with total page 383 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores how and why people make judgments and decisions that have economic consequences, and what the implications are for human well-being. It provides an integrated review of the latest research from many different disciplines, including social, cognitive, and developmental psychology; neuroscience and neurobiology; and economics and business. The book has six areas of focus: historical foundations; cognitive consistency and inconsistency; heuristics and biases; neuroeconomics and neurobiology; developmental and individual differences; and improving decisions. Throughout, the contributors draw out implications from traditional behavioral research as well as evidence from neuroscience. In recent years, neuroscientific methods have matured, beyond being simply correlational and descriptive, into theoretical prediction and explanation, and this has opened up many new areas of discovery about economic behavior that are reviewed in the book. In the final part, there are applications of the research to cognitive development, individual differences, and the improving of decisions. The book takes a broad perspective and is written in an accessible way so as to reach a wide audience of advanced students and researchers interested in behavioral economics and related areas. This includes neuroscientists, neuropsychologists, clinicians, psychologists (developmental, social, and cognitive), economists and other social scientists; legal scholars and criminologists; professionals in public health and medicine; educators; evidence-based practitioners; and policy-makers.
Download or read book H R 13715 National Weather Service Act of 1978 successor to H R 8763 written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science and Technology. Subcommittee on Transportation, Aviation, and Weather and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 1016 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Weather For Dummies written by John D. Cox and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-12-22 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Weather For Dummies is probably the best book written for a general audience about the subject." ―BILL GATES Find out what's really going on when it seems like the sky is falling with Weather For Dummies What exactly is happening when the wind blows, the clouds roll in, lightning flashes, and rain pours down? How do hurricanes whip into a frenzy, and where do tornadoes come from? Why do seasonal conditions sometimes vary so much from one year to the next? The inner workings of the weather can be a mystery, but Dummies can help. Packed with dozens of maps, charts, and stunning photographs of weather conditions, Weather For Dummies brings the science of meteorology down to earth, covering everything from weather basics to cloud types, seasonal differences, extreme weather events, climate change, and beyond. You'll learn how to: Predict the weather and prepare a forecast Use common weather terminology like a pro Identify different types of clouds Spot weather conditions that can lead to storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, and monsoons Observe fun weather phenomena like lightning, rainbows, sundogs, and haloes Talk about what impact weather has on the global ecosystem Get a handle on smog, the greenhouse effect, global warming, and other climate issues Featuring clear explanations and fun and easy activities you can do at home, you'll be ready – rain or shine – for the ever-changing skies above with Weather For Dummies.
Download or read book See Ya Later Calculator written by Editors of Portable Press and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2017-06-01 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The math book for anyone who thinks they hate math, full of easy, entertaining and practical tricks for mentally solving problems in seconds. No matter how much you might try to avoid numbers, we all use math every day to calculate a tip, figure out an interest rate, or estimate the cost of the groceries in your cart. But the good news is, math can be easy—and even fun—if you know how to do it all in your head. With these simple and downright magical math tricks, you can do everyday math faster than it takes to dig out your phone and find the calculator app. Step-by-step and easy-to-memorize directions show more than 125 math operations anyone can do in their head. Plus, it features do-it-yourself math projects, puzzles, and a bonus section for advanced mathophiles. Get ready to tackle problems such as . . . • How to easily square any number • How to add three-digit numbers • How to use a mirror to measure the height of a building • How to make a ruler out of a dollar bill • How to use geometry to paint walls, cut floor tiling, and do other home renovations • How to subtract numbers . . . by adding And lots more . . . No calculator required.
Download or read book Understanding Ignorance written by Daniel R. Denicola and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2018-09-04 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An exploration of what we can know about what we don't know: why ignorance is more than simply a lack of knowledge. Ignorance is trending. Politicians boast, “I'm not a scientist.” Angry citizens object to a proposed state motto because it is in Latin, and “This is America, not Mexico or Latin America.” Lack of experience, not expertise, becomes a credential. Fake news and repeated falsehoods are accepted and shape firm belief. Ignorance about American government and history is so alarming that the ideal of an informed citizenry now seems quaint. Conspiracy theories and false knowledge thrive. This may be the Information Age, but we do not seem to be well informed. In this book, philosopher Daniel DeNicola explores ignorance—its abundance, its endurance, and its consequences. DeNicola aims to understand ignorance, which seems at first paradoxical. How can the unknown become known—and still be unknown? But he argues that ignorance is more than a lack or a void, and that it has dynamic and complex interactions with knowledge. Taking a broadly philosophical approach, DeNicola examines many forms of ignorance, using the metaphors of ignorance as place, boundary, limit, and horizon. He treats willful ignorance and describes the culture in which ignorance becomes an ideological stance. He discusses the ethics of ignorance, including the right not to know, considers the supposed virtues of ignorance, and concludes that there are situations in which ignorance is morally good. Ignorance is neither pure nor simple. It is both an accusation and a defense (“You are ignorant!” “Yes, but I didn't know!”). Its practical effects range from the inconsequential to the momentous. It is a scourge, but, DeNicola argues daringly, it may also be a refuge, a value, even an accompaniment to virtue.
Download or read book Blindfold Economics Hardcover written by Louis Kalonaros and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Signal and the Noise written by Nate Silver and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-02-03 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Download or read book IBM SPSS Statistics 26 Step by Step written by Darren George and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-12-06 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: IBM SPSS Statistics 26 Step by Step: A Simple Guide and Reference, sixteenth edition, takes a straightforward, step-by-step approach that makes SPSS software clear to beginners and experienced researchers alike. Extensive use of four-color screen shots, clear writing, and step-by-step boxes guide readers through the program. Output for each procedure is explained and illustrated, and every output term is defined. Exercises at the end of each chapter support students by providing additional opportunities to practice using SPSS. This book covers the basics of statistical analysis and addresses more advanced topics such as multi-dimensional scaling, factor analysis, discriminant analysis, measures of internal consistency, MANOVA (between- and within-subjects), cluster analysis, Log-linear models, logistic regression and a chapter describing residuals. Back matter includes a description of data files used in exercises, an exhaustive glossary, suggestions for further reading and a comprehensive index. IMB SPSS Statistics 26 Step by Step is distributed in 85 countries, has been an academic best seller through most of the earlier editions, and has proved invaluable aid to thousands of researchers and students. New to this edition: Screenshots, explanations, and step-by-step boxes have been fully updated to reflect SPSS 26 How to handle missing data has been revised and expanded and now includes a detailed explanation of how to create regression equations to replace missing data More explicit coverage of how to report APA style statistics; this primarily shows up in the Output sections of Chapters 6 through 16, though changes have been made throughout the text.
Download or read book Tampa Bay Area Tornadoes October 3 1992 written by United States. National Weather Service and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Tampa Bay Area Tornadoes October 3 1992 written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Involvement and Attitude in Japanese Discourse written by Naomi Ogi and published by John Benjamins Publishing Company. This book was released on 2017-01-19 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses the long discussed issue of Japanese interactive markers (traditionally called sentence-final particles) in a new light, and provides the comprehensive linguistic documentation of the interactional functions of seven interactive markers: ne, na, yo, sa, wa, zo and ze. By adopting three key notions, ‘involvement’, ‘formality’ and ‘gender’, the study not only reveals the functions and pragmatic effects of each marker, but also sheds light on some fundamental issues of the nature of spoken discourse in general, including how speakers collaborate with each other to create and sustain their conversations and how linguistic functions of verbal forms interface with sociocultural norms. This book will be of interest to students and scholars in a wide range of linguistic fields such as Japanese linguistics, pragmatics, sociolinguistics, discourse analysis and applied linguistics and to teachers and learners of Japanese and of a second/foreign language.
Download or read book IBM SPSS Statistics 25 Step by Step written by Darren George and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-10-16 with total page 737 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: IBM SPSS Statistics 25 Step by Step: A Simple Guide and Reference, fifteenth edition, takes a straightforward, step-by-step approach that makes SPSS software clear to beginners and experienced researchers alike. Extensive use of four-color screen shots, clear writing, and step-by-step boxes guide readers through the program. Exercises at the end of each chapter support students by providing additional opportunities to practice using SPSS. This book covers both the basics of descriptive statistical analysis using SPSS through to more advanced topics such as multiple regression, multidimensional scaling and MANOVA, including instructions for Windows and Mac. This makes it ideal for both undergraduate statistics courses and for postgraduates looking to further develop their statistics and SPSS knowledge. New to this edition: Updated throughout to SPSS 25 Updated / restructured material on: Chart Builder; Univariate ANOVA; moderation on two- and three-way ANOVA; and Factor Analytic Techniques (formerly Factor Analysis structure) New material on computing z and T scores, and on computing z scores within descriptive statistics Clearer in-chapter links between the type of data and type of research question that the procedure can answer Updated / additional datasets, exercises, and expanded Companion Website material, including Powerpoint slides for instructors
Download or read book The Natural History of Puget Sound Country written by Arthur R. Kruckeberg and published by University of Washington Press. This book was released on 1991 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winner of the Pacific Northwest Booksellers Award Bounded on the east by the crest of the Cascade Range and on the west by the lofty east flank of the Olympic Mountains, Puget Sound terrain includes every imaginable topograhic variety. This thoughtful and eloquent natural history of the Puget Sound region begins with a discussion of how the ice ages and vulcanism shaped the land and then examines the natural attributes of the region--flora and fauna, climate, special habitats, life histories of key organisms--as they pertain to the functioning ecosystem. Mankind's effects upon the natural environment are a pervasive theme of the book. Kruckeberg looks at both positive and negative aspects of human interaction with nature in the Puget basin. By probing the interconnectedness of all natural aspects of one region, Kruckeberg illustrates ecological principles at work and gives us a basis for wise decision-making. The Natural History of Puget Sound Country is a comprehensive reference, invaluable for all citizens of the Northwest, as well as for conservationists, biologists, foresters, fisheries and wildlife personnel, urban planners, and environmental consultants everywhere. Lavishly illustrated with over three hundred photographs and drawings, it is much more than a beautiful book. It is a guide to our future.
